Retail Holiday Expected to Hit a 16-Year Low—What It Means for Small Towns and Main Street America

If you’ve ever worked a seasonal retail job—stocking shelves, ringing up holiday shoppers, or wrapping gifts with care—you know the hustle and heart that goes into year-end hiring. But this year, that familiar flurry may be more of a fizzle.

According to a new forecast from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, retailers are expected to hire fewer than 500,000 seasonal workers for the final quarter of 2025—the lowest level since 2009, when the country was clawing its way out of the Great Recession.

What’s Driving the Decline?

Retailers are facing a perfect storm of economic pressures:

• Tariffs and inflation are driving up costs, forcing companies to tighten budgets.

• Automation and permanent staff are replacing the need for large waves of seasonal hires.

• Muted consumer spending—especially among Gen Z—has retailers bracing for a cautious holiday season.

  
  

Andy Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, summed it up: “This year may be more about doing more with less”.

Even major players like Target and Macy’s have remained quiet on hiring goals. Target, for example, is leaning on its existing workforce and 43,000 “On-Demand” team members rather than onboarding thousands of new seasonal employees.

Why It Matters for Small Towns

In rural communities and small towns, seasonal retail jobs aren’t just temporary gigs—they’re lifelines. They help families make ends meet, give teens their first taste of work, and inject energy into local economies during the busiest shopping season of the year.

A hiring freeze at the national level can ripple through Main Street, leaving local stores short-staffed and job seekers out in the cold.

What Can We Do?

This is a wake-up call for small-town leaders and business owners. If big-box stores are scaling back, it’s time for local retailers to step up:

• Offer flexible hours to attract part-time help from parents, students, and retirees.

• Tap into community pride—remind folks that shopping local keeps jobs local.

• Get creative with incentives like store discounts, referral bonuses, or branded swag.

And for job seekers? Don’t wait for the big chains. Knock on the doors of your local boutiques, bakeries, and hardware stores. They might not be hiring in droves, but they’re hiring with heart.

📉 Sources:

• Retail Dive: “Retail’s seasonal hiring could hit lowest point since 2009”

• MSN: “Why Retail Hiring Is Expected to Drop to Its Lowest Level in Over a Decade”

• Challenger Gray & Christmas Report: “2025 Seasonal Retail Hiring Outlook”