The Shutdown Is Over—Now What? An Expert Weighs In on What’s Next for the U.S. Economy

After 43 long days, the federal government has reopened. The longest shutdown in U.S. history came to a close when Congress passed a long-overdue funding bill on November 12, 2025. But while the lights are back on in Washington, the economic fallout is still being tallied—and it’s not pretty.

According to the White House Council of Economic Advisers, the shutdown cost the U.S. economy an estimated $15 billion per week, with total losses ranging from $7 billion to $14 billion in GDP due to lost productivity, delayed spending, and disrupted services.

The Immediate Economic Toll

Economist Greg Daco of EY-Parthenon noted that even with the government back in business, “you’re going to see a visible and permanent loss of economic activity.” That’s because some of the damage—missed paychecks, delayed contracts, and halted services—can’t be fully recovered.

Key areas hit hardest include:

• Federal workers: Over 700,000 employees were furloughed or worked without pay, leading to reduced consumer spending.

• Air travel: Staffing shortages caused thousands of flight delays and cancellations.

• Public services: National parks, food assistance programs, and small business loan processing were all disrupted.

What’s Next for the Economy?

While some economic activity may rebound in early 2026—thanks to back pay and delayed spending catching up—experts caution that the shutdown’s effects could linger. According to Scope Ratings, Q4 GDP growth is expected to dip by several tenths of a percent, though a modest rebound is projected for Q1 2026.

Economist Amitrajeet Batabyal warns that the shutdown may have also eroded international confidence in U.S. economic stability, especially as another funding debate looms in early 2026.

What It Means for Main Street

For small towns and local businesses, the shutdown’s impact was more than just numbers. Delayed tax refunds, paused federal grants, and reduced consumer spending hit communities hard—especially those reliant on tourism, agriculture, or federal employment.

But there’s a silver lining: resilience. Across the country, small-town leaders stepped up—offering support to furloughed workers, organizing food drives, and advocating for their communities. That’s the kind of grassroots grit that keeps America running, even when Washington stalls.

Moving Forward

As the economy regains its footing, experts recommend:

• Monitoring key data: Expect a flood of delayed economic reports in the coming weeks, which will help shape policy decisions.

• Preparing for uncertainty: With another potential shutdown on the horizon in early 2026, businesses and households should brace for continued volatility.

• Investing in local economies: Supporting small businesses and community initiatives can help buffer against national disruptions.

  
  

The shutdown may be over, but its story—and its lessons—are far from finished. For small-town America, the path forward lies in doing what it does best: showing up, sticking together, and turning challenges into momentum.

Sources:

CBS News, ABC News, FXStreet, Investopedia. and The Conversation